Monday, February 28, 2011

7.0 Addicted to the Wave

Each day, I always get excited to look at the PSE stock market OPEN, HIGH, LOW, CLOSE price quotes. It fulfills me that my analysis the previous day is indeed correct. I have been analysing PNB stocks vis-a-vis the three peer banks - MBT, BDO, and BPI since middle of January. At the end of the trading day, I immediately gather the four price quotes of the stocks of each bank and update my candlestick chart. PNB, MBT, and BDO stocks behave in the same manner. BPI is more volatile with its price swinging wildly from high to low along the trend. I am trying to understand why BPI is behaving so and it makes me feel unsafe to trade with BPI because of its high and unpredictable volatility. 


PNB is my favorite stock for three reasons. First is that I used to work with that bank. Second, is that this is the first stock I invested in and earned quite handsomely in terms of return. Lastly, is because its price movement is already familiar to me. I can almost tell with certainty how the price of PNB will be tomorrow. As I monitor PNB's stock market performance, I am gaining some kind of parental familiarity as to its behavior. I begin to feel like watching over my own child behave everyday. It is addictive.

I always begin my day reading the online business news of the Inquirer and the Business World and end my day watching the CNN, BBC and Al Jazeera news of what is happening in the world. As I am writing this, the revolt that started in Tunisia has already spread into other Middle Eastern Countries like wildfire - Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan, Iran - among others. I digest these information like food and analyze its impact on the local bourse.

The local stock market has already gone downwards since January due mainly to what is happening in the Middle East and inflation concerns. While fundamentally the Philippines and the local corporations are doing well, the local stock market is like a small toy being tossed into the rough seas of international events it can neither control nor influence. 

The stocks I have initially bought have all gone down in value. As a freshman stock trader, I bought those stocks in the early part of January 2011 without any benefit of technical and fundamental analyses . I was lucky that my initial capital was a minimal amount and was lucky that my retirement pay has not yet been released to date or I would have made a big mistake in investing them all in one basket.

Luckily, my resourcefulness have lead me to learn a lot about technical analysis from every available online resources. I now at least have a working knowledge of the Elliot Wave, Relative Strength Index, Stochastic Charts, Moving Average of Convergence and Divergence, and the Fibonacci Retracement. I watch online videos and I learn a great deal from them. Tomorrow, I will start my formal education in stock market analyses via the PSE-Ateneo Certified Securities Specialist Course which runs for four (4) months. I am already very excited to learn more from our speaker.

I am also almost done reading the book, "Market Wizards" and I cannot wait to read four (4) more books in my reading list. Unfortunately, these are not all available in the Philippines and so I have to order them abroad. In case you may be interested, the books I am referring to are, "Trading the Plan" by Rober Deele, "Big Trends in Trading" by Price Headley, "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee, and "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Trader Press, Inc.

My wife has been supportive to my new career path but sometimes she does not understand why I am spending so much time on the net and the television. I told her that it is better for me to be addicted to this than to something else. And then I add that my addiction can buy her dozens of Loise Vuitton and that makes her all the more supportive to my cause. 

1 comment:

  1. Some things you might want to keep in mind. PSE lists the largest stockholders. If you notice a large increase in sell volume you might be able to determine it is from a large holder of shares.

    In an up market it is easy to make money. Everyone looks like a hero.

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